Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? Grayscale Says Macro Signals Matter More

The debate over when Bitcoin’s bear market will end is largely split between two views. One camp still holds on to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other believes that the bottom may already be in.

Grayscale, for one, favors the latter.

Macro Over Market Cycles

The supporters of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin halving events as the main driver of price movements and expect the current downturn to follow the same pattern as previous bear markets. Historically, the crypto asset has reached its bottom around one year after a cyclical peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging about 80%.

Based on that framework, Bitcoin’s price could still fall further and reach a bottom in September or October. Grayscale, however, said it subscribes to an alternative view that BTC has matured as an asset and is now increasingly driven by broader macroeconomic forces, similar to other major asset classes.

The firm noted that previous bear markets have coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, and added that this year’s downturn has unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates.

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