Fed Rate Decision Pits 104 Economists Against a 36% Hike Bet
The Federal Reserve (Fed) decides on interest rates this Wednesday. Almost every economist expects no change. Traders are far less sure.
That gap matters. If the Fed surprises, stocks, bonds, oil and Bitcoin (BTC) all move fast. Bitcoin traded near $64,915 on Monday, up 0.7%.
Economists Say Hold, Traders Say Maybe Not
The Fed's main interest rate has sat between 3.50% and 3.75% for four meetings. The FactSet consensus says it stays there.
Reuters asked 104 economists in mid-July. All 104 said hold. Fully 78 expected no change through December.
Traders tell a different story. Fed funds futures put the chance of a rate rise at 13% a week ago. By Friday it had jumped to 38%. It now sits near 36%.
"We are currently seeing the biggest indecision by the markets regarding the expected outcome for some time," analyst The Martini Guy noted.
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The two camps are not really arguing. Economists name the single likeliest outcome. Futures price every outcome, including the unlikely ones.
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