If Bitcoin breaks $62k over the weekend, a $1.1B short overhang stands ready to pull price down to $60k

Bitcoin enters the weekend near $62,900, less than 1% above the July 31 intraday low, and Deribit has already settled roughly $9.6 billion in monthly Bitcoin options. The venue settles monthly contracts at 08:00 UTC on the last Friday of each month, and live expiry data placed July’s Bitcoin notional near $9.7 billion.

The immediate price test for the weekend sits at $62,000, where a sustained break would leave Bitcoin about 3% from the $60,000 put, which carries $1.17 billion in open interest, according to the current CoinGlass snapshot.

The July 31 high of $65,266 defines another boundary, with $64,500 serving as the first repair level.

Capital resting within 1% of spot across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, and Bybit will determine how far weekend orders travel, since a broad reduction in nearby liquidity gives each market order more influence, and the side losing more capital determines the direction.

The depth test uses three comparisons: the four-hour median from 04:00 to 08:00 UTC, the four-hour median from 08:00 to 12:00 UTC, and the latest reading entering Aug. 1. An aggregate decline of at least 15% across three major venues would confirm a market-wide withdrawal of nearby liquidity.

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