UBS Does a U-Turn: Now Sees Two Fed Rate Hikes Coming in 2026
TLDR
- UBS now expects two 25 basis point Fed rate hikes in September and December 2026
- A stronger-than-expected August jobs report drove the forecast change
- US employers added 162,000 jobs in August; unemployment held at 4.1%
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech also influenced the call
- Markets are pricing in a 58% chance of a September rate hike, up from 52%
UBS has changed its interest rate forecast after a strong US jobs report came in better than expected in August 2026. The bank now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates twice this year.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 UBS Global Wealth Management expects the U.S. Fed to deliver 25 bp rate hikes in September and December 2026, vs prior forecast of no policy change. pic.twitter.com/FagOYzoTtX
- Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) September 7, 2026
UBS Shifts Its Rate Forecast
UBS Global Wealth Management had previously expected no rate changes in 2026. That view has now changed.
The bank now calls for two 25 basis point hikes from the Fed, one in September and one in December. That is a full reversal from its earlier position.
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